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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still